Happenings: Salt Tastes Better than Dichloropropene

Ventura strawberry farmers—or the people who represent them—delight in playing the role of victim. They lament the fact that Claritans fill water with chlorides and then send it downstream. There, hapless growers are forced to irrigate their strawberries with water too salty to abide. So while choride is common, natural, and essential to life, farm interests talk about it like it’s pretty sinister stuff[1].

“Increasing the salt content of water applied to crops is like slowly applying poison.”
-Ventura County Agricultural Water Quality Coalition, FAQ[2]

“In recent years, thanks to rapid growth in the population of the Santa Clarita Valley, the water released by those treatment plants has become laden with chlorides and other salts. The chloride levels have risen so high that they have begun poisoning some of Ventura County’s most important crops, including strawberries, avocados and nursery stock, all of which are particularly salt-sensitive.”
-Farm Bureau of Ventura County[3]

“It’s the obligation of the upstream dischargers to comply with (the standard) and protect their downstream neighbors from the consequences of their contamination.”
-John Krist, CEO of Farm Bureau, in an article in The Signal[4]

Instead of relatively benign salt, conventional strawberry farmers prefer bathing their fields with hundreds of tons of halogenated hydrocarbons, organophosphates, and other pesticides, herbicides, and fumigants. Many of these chemicals just aren’t found in nature and many aren’t very well-studied. We know they do wonders killing fungus and nematodes, but many are also suspected or confirmed toxins, carcinogens, or endocrine disruptors.
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At pesticideinfo.org , one can view how pesticides are applied by crop type, county, and year. You can easily produce a table like the one below, which documents pesticide use by Ventura County strawberry growers in 2008, the most recent year available:

Click on the table for the full list of pesticides used[5]. Note: “A PAN Bad Actor” is a chemical that the Pesticide Action Network has identified as being one or more of the following: carcinogen; reproductive or developmental toxin; neurotoxin; groundwater contaminant; or acutely toxic according to the World Health Organization

Chloropicrin, a devastating chemical weapon from World War I, is used as a fumigant for strawberry fields. It sterilizes the soil, killing organisms that might harm strawberry plants (it also kills many organisms that are harmless or beneficial). Over one-million pounds of chloropicrin were used on Ventura County strawberries in 2008, applied at about 122 pounds per acre. The good news is that chloropicrin decays within a few days of use. The bad news: its breakdown releases chlorides[6]. Chloropicrin is 65% chlorine by weight, and it releases chlorides within minutes or hours of being applied[7]. Thus, application of 1,011,790 pounds of chloropicrin adds over 650,000 pounds of chlorides to strawberry fields every year. I was unable to find a study documenting whether these chlorides might damage crops, but it seems well worth investigating.

Nearly 750,000 pounds of dichloropropene was also used in 2008. Strawberry farmers, eager as they seem to protect water quality, may be unaware that the California Pesticides Database lists dichloropropene as a “highly toxic groundwater contaminant”. Fields are treated with methyl bromide as well. Unfortunately, the chemical depletes the ozone layer, so it may be replaced with metyhyl iodide, which has made the news recently because it is profoundly toxic and carcinogenic[8]. In addition to all of these chemicals, literally tons of fenhexamid, thiram, malathion, boscalid, chlorpyrifos, and bifenazate are used in Ventura strawberry fields.

There is evidence that high levels of chlorides are bad for strawberries—a fact I’m not disputing. But where is the concern over chemicals far more toxic to humans than chloride? It is absolutely disgusting for agricultural interests to call chlorides “pollution” and “contamination” while they fill their fields and bathe their berries with chemicals far more deserving of those labels. While these pesticides don’t flow upstream, many are persistent in the environment and can affect us indirectly. There haven’t been comprehensive experiments to establish the levels of chlorides that harm strawberries, much less experiments that look at how spraying chemical pesticides, herbicides, fumigants, and fertilizers might affect chloride sensitivity.

The voice of Ventura County agriculture has driven the Regional Water Quality Control Board to set a low chloride tolerance. But if it were up to me, I’d rather have millions of pounds of salt added to water than millions of pounds of synthetic pesticides sprayed in the soil, leached into water, and filling the air. Perhaps having water too salty for strawberries wouldn't be so bad after all.
.
[1]Of course, the amount of chloride is key; to quote Paracelsus, "Poison is in everything, and there is no thing without poison. Only the dose makes a thing not a poison."
[2] http://www.vcawqc.org/FAQs.html
[3] http://www.farmbureauvc.com/water_quality.html
[4] http://www.the-signal.com/section/36/article/29901/
[5] http://www.pesticideinfo.org/DCo.jsp?cok=56&sk=1016
[6] http://extoxnet.orst.edu/pips/chloropi.htm

[7] http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/np/mba/july96/wilhel1.htm and http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/bk-1997-0652.ch008

[8] http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/06/12/EDT11DTF3O.DTL

Happenings: Fees, Water and Terror

This evening’s meeting began with a delay[1]. In early May, Councilmember Laurie Ender suggested that the Golden Valley Bridge be renamed to honor Cameron Glover, a local Sheriff’s Deputy who died in a traffic collision. In the time since her suggestion was made, Ender mentioned that a number of people had expressed concern. They told her that the City Council should try to formalize its approach to naming City monuments, structures, events, etc. in honor of various Claritans. Thus, no bridge was renamed, and the topic will be revisited at a future City Council meeting. Duane Harte threw in the idea of a collective memorial to “Our Fallen heroes […] to which we add names as it becomes necessary; we could pray then pray that it does not become necessary.”

Awards and recognition aplenty were meted out by the City. Among them were three awards for excellence in communications and marketing, at which Gail Ortiz communicated her delight.

Moving onto the Consent Calendar, the City Council found its plans to approve everything halted by comments from Cam Noltemeyer. She made a last-minute effort to keep the City Council from adopting an ordinance that will remove term limits for those serving as City Commissioners or on City Boards. She said that three terms were enough, and fresh ideas and fresh blood were needed for commissions (as well as for City Council). During this comment—or perhaps Noltemeyer’s subsequent comment about tree trimming—Mayor Pro-Tem Marsha McLean light-heartedly asked “What would we do without you, Cam?” Cam curtly reminded McLean that she could speak after her three-minute comment had come to an end.

There was also concern over Item 12 on the Consent Calendar, which proposed increasing the fees businesses pay for various licenses and permits. The City of Santa Clarita acts as a sort of middle-man between businesses and the County. It collects fees that are sent to the County, which takes care of the actual permits and licenses. But while the City has kept its fees that same since 1994, the County has raised its fees several times. Taxpayers subsidize local businesses by making up the difference. For example, Laurie Ender pointed out that an acupressure establishment pays $121 to renew its license with the City, the same it would have paid in 1994. However, the County fee is now $354, so Claritans make up the difference of $233. You can view all the discrepancies on the agenda item's page[2]. At the high end, the City doesn’t charge a fee to establish a body art establishment, but the County requires $2,254 for the establishment.

Ken Striplin, filling in for Ken Pulskamp, said that this ordinance would only impact certain businesses in Santa Clarita like restaurants, massage parlors, and carnivals. He noted that the City wouldn’t be profiting from the fee increases—it would just be recovering the money it currently pays out on behalf of local businesses.

Councilmember Frank Ferry made the damning observation that instead of subsidizing cheaper tattoos and massages since 1994, the City could have increased spending on law enforcement or recreation. Both he and Ender wanted to correct the fee pricing disparity, but the other members of the City Council would not agree. Bob Kellar was particularly adamant about not raising fees assessed to businesses, preferring those who live and work in Santa Clarita to give up more of their money instead. For the time being, then, businesses will pay 1994 prices for 2010 services. McLean suggested that staff work on language to raise business fees incrementally until the City is in line with the County, and that proposal will be discussed at a future meeting.

Finally, it was time to discuss chlorides, too many of which are being dumped into the water supply according to the Sanitation District. As discussed at the last meeting, Santa Claritans are being asked to fund a large new desalinization facility to correct this problem. It will cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and primary benefits will be realized by avocado and strawberry farmers in Ventura.

There were a number of public speakers, almost all of whom expressed frustration that the City can do only so much to protest without facing major retribution in the form of fines or retracted deals. TimBen Boydston made the most interesting and hopeful (delusional?) remarks. His argument was complex and full of legal references to Prop 13, but he basically suggested that “only special benefits are assessable.” That is, Claritan property owners can’t be forced to pay assessments for which they do not receive a special benefit. And since Claritans would pay to treat water that goes to farmers outside the SCV, there would be no special benefit realized. Boydston didn’t quite finish laying out the argument during his three-minutes, but Mayor Weste said “I hope you’re right.” Other speakers were angry that Claritans would have to pay for the digging of wells in Ventura; that saline removed from water would be dumped into oil wells; and that the new water treatment plant would pave the way for more development without making the developers pay their share. People, in short, were upset.

Thus, it took some courage for Lynne Plambeck to express her support for the idea of chloride reduction. She said that farmers are really being hurt by chlorides (debatable), and hoped that deciding how to fund water improvement measures wouldn’t prevent them from being implemented.

The City Council didn’t have a lot to say after spending hours on this issue two weeks ago. Mayor Weste gave a nice, sincere little speech that encouraged Claritans to do what they can, and she reminded residents that this would be a long battle.

The idea of a “two-pronged approach” was frequently mentioned and supported by both speakers and the City Council. It sounds decisive and proactive, but it's not. According to the agenda, “The first prong is to continue with the current work to develop environmental analysis and design specifications, with an intent to maximize cost efficiencies. The second prong includes developing a legislative and potential legal strategy dealing with overall water policies and laws at the state and federal level driving the limits mandating desalination.” In other words, the City is going to try its best to minimize costs however it can.

Finally, everyone but Bob Kellar voted for Councilmember Frank Ferry to become the alternate for the Sanitation District Board (McLean and Weste currently serve on the board). Bob Kellar wanted to stay on as alternate, but Ferry described his experience with this body and success in past negotiations, so he was selected to replace Kellar.

Apart from a few people who spoke about the problem of selling tobacco to minors in Santa Clarita, the Public Participation speakers focused on Councilmember Frank Ferry’s tirade about “developmental terrorism ”—the opposing of new developments before they’ve even made it to the Planning Commission. Many people flattered themselves by suggesting that Ferry had called them developmental terrorists. In fact, Ferry had reserved that label for a few politically active, not-explicitly-named parties: TimBen Boydston, David Gauny, and maybe SCOPE. He thought these were the masterminds behind opposing developments, and everyone else was just mindlessly following their orders.

Laura Stotler was the first to admonish Frank Ferry. This was appropriate, since Stotler’s remarks were the ones that triggered Ferry’s speech. She and many others would tell him that his choice of words was somewhere between inappropriate and outrageous. She also reassured him that she could make up her own mind on issues. Not everyone who came before the City Council was an easily manipulated pawn, as Ferry had implied. Finally, she identified and lamented Ferry’s “disdain for homeowners who come before you with local concerns.” Most comments that followed expressed more of the same idea. Boydston was predictably loud during his remarks, prompting Councilmember Laurie Ender to ask that the microphone be turned down. David Gauny, who was next to speak, brilliantly replied “Would you prefer it all the way off?” Delighted giggling from the audience followed.

With great aplomb, Gauny delivered a short speech in which he defended himself against the accusations of Ferry and McLean that he was lying, manipulating and frightening Claritans for political gains, and masterminding opposition to new developments. He closed by telling Ferry “You may be on the City Council but you are hardly a winner.”

Before the meeting ended, Marsha McLean read a prepared speech from the dais, reviewing her greatest hits in the realm of community activism. She said that she had only objected to remarks last week because Laura Stotler said that the City approved projects which it in fact had not. McLean wanted to set the record straight that she likes having citizens come forward.

Ferry responded by listing community activists and saying the degree to which he liked and/or respected them, and immensely useful exercise. For example, he respects Lynne Plambeck because she’s upfront. Ferry didn’t say anything about his choice of the word “terrorism.”

The meeting adjourned in memory of U.S. Marine Corps Pfc. Jake William Suter, who died while serving in the War on Terror in Afghanistan.

[1]Agenda me
[2]Here are the discrepancies

Happenings: Salty Water and the Return of Cam

To open tonight’s City Council meeting[1], Frank Ferry looked ahead towards Memorial Day and read Commander Kelly Strong’s “Freedom is not Free.”

Next, in a different sort of memorial, the City Council proudly accepted plans that will honor the late Ed Redd. Mayor Pro Tem Marsha McLean, who selected Redd to serve as a Parks Commissioner, was very pleased that an engraved photo, scholarship, and dedication of the “Ed Redd Room” at the community center would pay tribute to the beloved commissioner, counselor, and youth advocate.

Delivering the next presentation was Captain Paul Becker. Two meetings ago, Krissy McAfee came forward to speak out against a Sheriff’s Department that she said did little to pursue a drug dealer that she provided tips on. It was this dealer who supplied the black tar heroin on which her son and other young people would overdose. Councilmember Bob Kellar and others requested that Becker investigate the prevalence of heroin in the SCV and look into the responsiveness of the Sheriff’s Department. In response, Becker said “I began an immediate assessment into the scope of the drug problem in our community.” He found:

* “One report after the other” of traffic and pedestrian stops that led to the discovery of “virtually every legal and illegal drug imaginable.”

*There were 3 heroin-related arrests in 2009; there have already been 18 in 2010 (which could be due to more aggressive anti-drug actions as well as increased usage)

*There were 4 deaths by drug-overdose from January-May 2009, and 5 ODs from January- May 2010.

In summary, Becker said “There has been an increase in the availability and use of heroin in Santa Clarita.” He identified the abuse of prescription drugs and meth as other important local drug problems.

Becker said that he will work on allocating more resources to schools to stop drug use early. Regarding unresponsiveness to drug tips and individual complaints, Becker said that his department follows up on every call where enough information is given. While studying 25 specific requests from the public relating to heroin, he found there was always a deputy dispatched or other service was provided. That said, Becker lamented the fact that many tips are too vague to legally act upon. Interestingly, he also argued that it's more effective to work “backwards” from an arrest for drug possession than to devote hours of time to surveillance on suspected dealers.

After thanking Becker for his presentation, the councilmembers shared their reports and news. Kellar reminded Claritans that there will be a Memorial Day Ceremony at 10am atEternal Valley.

The Redevelopment Agency portion of the meeting began next. After a conspicuous absence, Cam Noltemeyer was back to speak out against the City’s presentation of the 2010-11 Annual Operating Budget and 5-Year Capital Improvement Program. Specifically, Noltemeyer wished that the City Council would present information on the budget and capital improvements to the public rather than simply dismiss staff presentations. She argued that Claritans might like to know that the library, for example, will gobble up $19M and that the Redevelopment Agency owes the City some $18M. City Manager Ken Pulskamp replied by saying that the City has been successful at securing a number of grants, and all the spending that will take place is responsible and beneficial to the community. For someone always ready to deliver good news, one might think Pulskamp would smile more.

On the Consent Calendar…

Item 5: No Limits
“Politics are a little like underwear; to remain fresh, they should be changed quite often” said TimBen Boydston. While a bit awkwardly-phrased, his point was clear: abolishing term limits for City Commissioners could lead to the same few people serving again and again, especially since they are appointed by a City Council where the same few people serve again and again. Cam Noltemeyer echoed his sentiments, saying that the City was eliminating the 3-term limit rule in order to keep the same Planning Commissioners. All but one of its members (i.e., Trautman), she said, uncritically accept all projects and make things very easy on developers.

These were points that the City Council (minus Bob Kellar) was not willing to consider. Ender, Ferry, McLean, and Weste all observed that they, as councilmembers, could act responsibly in determining how long commissioners should serve. Councilmember Frank Ferry noted rather gleefully that appointing commissioners was a "political appointment” and one of the perks of winning a seat on the City Council. He apparently wants Tim Burkhart, who will soon be termed out of the Planning Commission, to continue to serve the developers…I mean community.

So with everyone’s vote but Kellar’s, the elimination of term limits for commissioners was passed to a second reading. Everyone at City Hall can now grow even more comfortable dealing with each other, when a healthy distrust and unfamiliarity would clearly keep everyone more alert and critical.

Item 11: $1.50 for Open Space
Not so long ago, the City of Santa Clarita appeared to overwhelmingly support a $25/year tax that would go towards securing open space. In fact, 8 developers had a big share of the vote, so it appeared to have about 11% more support than it actually did[2]. After no increase last year, this year the City could add another $2 to the annual assessment.

Alan Ferdman said that the Open Space District is spending $421,000 a year, and at that rate, no additional money is needed to ensure a surplus. Ken Pulskamp responded by saying that there will be some important purchase opportunities available because of the bad economy, so it’s important to have enough money to act on these chances to buy up pieces of land that will complete the green belt. He then offered up a steaming platter of verbal bullshit, saying that the developers didn’t really influence the outcome of the open space assessment (when they had 25% of the vote) and that the first acquisition of East Walker Ranch is “being widely used” (by me, perhaps—I’ve been there six times—but I’ve never run into anyone else except some ex-army guys who car-camped in the tiny parking lot for a week.)

It was embarrassing that the City Council ultimately approved raising the fee by $1.50. If one wanted to make a stand on principle that we shouldn’t increase taxes unnecessarily, one should have voted “no” to any increase, like Bob Kellar. If one thought the money would do a lot of good, one should have voted for the full $2.00, like Frank Ferry. But instead, we got a bizarre compromise of $1.50, an embarrassingly meaningless gesture that saves Claritans two quarters a year on the assessment. Ferry said, chuckling, that he hopes Lynne Plambeck saw that he voted to fully find the Open Space District.

Item 18: Is that Chloride I Taste?
This item offers a good example of a general principle: people will gladly invest a lot of time and energy into studying an extremely boring, complicated issue so long as a lot of money is at stake. And a lot of money is at stake. Each Claritan household stands to pay hundreds more per year in order to treat high chloride levels in discharged water. Apparently, the chloride is hurting the Santa Clara River and Ventura farmers.

Steve Maguin,the General Manager of LA County’s Sanitation Districts, presented on the topic. He was absolutely annoying in his vagueness. He said that the deals Santa Clarita has worked out with regional and state districts and other political bodies to “minimize” fee increases could all disappear if the wrong information is shared with the public or the wrong action taken by the City Council. This made opposing the increase very tricky.

Marsha McLean, who is never afraid to dive into the minutiae of big, complex problems objected on several counts: (1)There is no transparency in how the state agency makes its decisions about tolerable chloride levels, but we are beholden to them (2)There was no scientific study completed to determine if it was high chloride levels or something else affecting crops in Ventura, so chloride levels are basically being dictated by some farmers and their lawyers, and (3)We’re being forced to pay a lot of money in order to treat water that’s given to us salty; the State can legally send Santa Clarita water that Santa Clarita couldn’t legally discharge because of such high chloride levels. Worse, we are left with exceedingly few options on how to fight against the fee increases despite the fact that they are assessed without any scientific rationale. We’re justified in fighting against them, but if we do, we’ll lose the deals that have been negotiated to date. Concluded McLean, rather hopefully: “When people put our backs up against the wall we tend to push back, really hard.”

The many public speakers on this topic all opposed increases in fees by the sanitation district. The City Council was quite sympathetic. Laurene Weste said “I’d give up eating them!” of the Ventura avocados and strawberries that farmers claim are being damaged by chloride.

After a lot of back-and-forth, it wasn’t clear what would happen at the meeting on chlorides this Thursday.

Other Stuff

The water discussion concluded at 10:30pm, and you can get more details on it at SCVTalk[3]. Thereafter, the City passed to second reading an ordinance that will allow it to more easily influence projects that are likely to be annexed into the City of Santa Clarita, but that will also make it easier to annex developments that don’t meet City standards. Ken Pulskamp highlighted the former part, Cam Noltemeyer highlighted the latter.

Finally, during a Public Participation session that included comments about development along McBean, Frank Ferry identified “a very dangerous thing” called “developmental terrorism.” Ferry claims that people are stopping projects before they even get presented to the Planning Commission because they are so opposed to all growth in Santa Clarita and are using an anti-growth stance to get political power. Ferry prefers using a pro-growth stance to obtain political power, so this upsets him. (He all but said “TimBen Boydston” and “David Gauny" during his tirade.) Essentially, if you oppose a project that sounds much too big for your neighborhood before the planning commission has had a chance to weigh in, you are a terrorist. Classy. Ferry concluded by advising developers to file libel or slander lawsuits against certain parties for opposing their developments with lies.

The meeting ended a bit after 11.


[1]The Agenda
[2] Open Space background
[3]SCVTalk coverage

Happenings: None

The City Council meeting scheduled for this evening is not being transmitted successfully (see above). On SCVTV, there is nothing but a black box, and I have finally come to terms with the fact that nothing resembling a City Council meeting will emerge from its inky depths.

TMS never does a very good job covering these meetings, tending to report on them two days late and without much detail. Thus, I'd recommend KHTS for the City Council information you desire.

Happenings: Santa Clarita's Hidden Heroin Problem?

Tonight’s City Council meeting ended up being not about the recent City Council elections but rather a local family’s agonizing loss[1]. Krissy McAfee told the story of losing her son to a heroin overdose. Black tar heroin, she said, is entering our communities largely unnoticed and unopposed. She hoped that speaking at tonight’s meeting would make Santa Clarita’s media, law enforcement, elected officials, and families understand the damage the drug is doing.

Prior to her speech, the meeting was rather routine. It didn’t actually begin until 7:06 pm, after over an hour of apparently non-televised "todo" over the re-elections of Marsha McLean, Laurene Weste, and Frank Ferry. After being sworn in, a ceremony that has surely grown tedious the fourth time around, the re-elected trio moved to the back of the room for a small reception.

Once everyone had their fill of cake and congratulations, Councilmember Laurie Ender read a declaration making April “Autism Awareness Month” in Santa Clarita. She cited a figure that 1 in 67 of Santa Clarita’s schoolchildren have been diagnosed with some form of autism. Members of SCAAN, the Santa Clarita Autism Asperger Network, came forward with their children and spoke about the prevalence of autism. They then posed for the traditional photo beneath the City Seal, one little boy making jazz hands next to Mayor Pro-Tem Marsha McLean. Ender observed that making the autistic kids endure an hour of election-related pomp and circumstance might not have been the best idea, but the City Council applauded them for their good behavior.

During Councilmember reports, Laurie Ender went on to thank Adele MacPherson for her 18 years of hard work at City Hall, handing her a bouquet of flowers and giving a hug. Bob Kellar applauded Santa Claritans for raising some $200K for over twenty local charities at the recent “Dancing with the Stars” fundraiser. Marsha McLean, who lamented traveling to Century City to foxtrot, stated that one of her goals over the next four years will be to get a big facility in Santa Clarita that can host such events. McLean then reported on business beyond the City Council’s control, and for once the news was good: there will be no cuts to Santa Clarita library service, and the feared cuts to Antelope Valley Metrolink service will not take place—there will be a 6% increase in fares instead. (Whether we can actually afford all this without going deeper into debt was not mentioned.)

Finally, Mayor Laurene Weste remembered the lives of four recently deceased Claritans in whose honor the meeting would adjourn. Her voice trembled as she spoke words in memory of each, especially Trae Daniel Allen[2], the young man who died from a heroin overdose. She had spoken with his parents earlier and said that the City has to do more to help out families struggling with drug addiction.

The Consent Calendar was approved with the recommended actions taken for all items. It was quite a mundane list: addition of some new no-stopping zones on busy roads, approval of checks, and additional money for landscaping at the Discovery Park project.

During Public Participation, Trae Daniel Allen’s mother, accompanied by her daughter, spoke about the dark conclusion to her son’s four year struggle with oxytocin and heroin addiction. On Tuesday, March 23, she went out to warm up her car for work and saw her son lying on the driveway with foam coming out of his mouth and his nose. She started shaking him and screaming until the rest of her family ran out of the house. “All I could say was please wake up, please wake up!” Krissy McAfee said that it was Trae’s 17-year-old brother that called 9-1-1 to say “My brother’s dead.”

McAfee continued, recalling that she had tried many times to get local law enforcement to follow up on information she provided about drug dealers. She said that she knew the man who dumped Trae on her driveway that morning, and despite repeated calls from both her and neighbors, she never heard about any action being taken against heroin dealing. She went on to say that a week after Trae’s death, another person died of a heroin overdose, and a third person died last week.

Since none of the three heroin-related deaths have been covered in The Signal, McAfee said that many don’t realize the problem posed by Mexican black tar heroin. She described how dealers are infiltrating middle-class communities throughout Santa Clarita.

There’s nothing harder to watch than a mother talk about the death of one of her own children. That she was upset with the Sheriffs for a perceived lack of response to her calls is understandable; we count on them to keep drugs off of the streets. They may have taken action and not reported back to her, but we won't know until they issue comments. And it was clear that McAfee felt responsibility too, describing unbearable guilt over not stopping her son before it was too late. And, of course, there’s the uncomfortable fact that Trae was ultimately responsible for his own actions, at least until the addiction took over.

Councilmember Frank Ferry said that he wants to do away with the school district’s zero-tolerance drug policy, which he called “antiquated” and ineffective, doing little to stop serious drug problems. Ferry said that at his school, they give drug-users one chance to stay if they sign a contract, submit to weekly drug tests, and meet minimum attendance and academic standards. He said that this approach is far better than simply transferring a student to a new school.

Councilmember Bob Kellar had some stern words for the Sheriff’s Department. He said this was not the first time he had heard of people calling in tips to the Sheriff’s Department with nothing being done. Kellar looked the new captain in the eye and said “This is not acceptable.” He ordered Becker to come back to the City Council in two weeks ready to report on what he will be doing to stop this growing drug problem.

Laurie Ender asked a group of girls who had come forward to speak about international child rights and welfare to talk to their friends about what they had heard. She said the story means so much more coming from peers than adults, and the girls nodded tearfully.

There's only so much that anyone can do to save people from themselves and their addictions, and heroin addiction is said to be one of the most intense there is. We don't yet know the whole story, but it will be important to find out the scope of this problem in Santa Clarita.

[1]Here is the agenda.
[2]I'm going with the spelling of his name presented on the agenda; KHTS said it was "Trey", however. His last name differs from his mother's as she re-married after he was born.

Happenings: David vs. Ferryliath

The Final Count

For those who like their councilmembers loud, dismissive, and burnt-out, today was a good day. Incumbent Frank Ferry won reelection to the City Council, defeating challenger David Gauny by a mere 32 votes. He will be joining fellow incumbents Marsha McLean and Laurene Weste for another four years behind the dais. Ferry is perhaps best known for his decision-making style. After hearing about a difficult issue, he immediately makes up his mind and then zones out until it’s time to vote.

We are well used to Frank Ferry by now. The Santa Clarita City Council has included him more often than not. Indeed, both he and Laurene Weste have been in charge for more than half of Santa Clarita’s years as a city. Like herpes, once the City Council got Ferry, he was there to stay. (He’s usually quiet, but the flare-ups can be something.)

Click to make this chart larger. It was constructed using the timeline in the excellent The City of Santa Clarita: Celebrating 20 Years of Success by Gail Ortiz and Diana Sevanian.

Before his tenure could be officially extended, however, 600 or so votes had to be counted. These were votes that remained after the main count last week and that would decide whether Frank Ferry or challenger David Gauny won a seat.

Watching this morning’s count proved exhausting. SCVTV played what are apparently its only five music clips, each of which was about a minute long and combined the worst elements of 80s synth, Mannheim Steamroller Christmas music, the Disney Electric Parade theme, and background music from the Oregon Trail computer game circa 1996. I recorded clips but for some reason can't embed them--sorry.

"Hey buddy--my eyes are up here."

After the counting, City Manager Ken Pulskamp announced the winner. Gauny had waited for the results in the front row with his lovely family by his side. But victory was not to be his.



A Good Fit


Why did Ferry get those extra three-dozen votes? It’s tough to say, but I have found one variable that was very tightly correlated with the number of votes that the top five candidates received: the total square-inches of glossy campaign mailers on which they appeared. I gathered the dozen or so campaign mailers that were sent out this year, measured them, put the numbers into a spreadsheet, and fitted a logarithmic model. It has an R^2-value of 0.995, which means that the very simple model describes the actual election data extremely well. The logarithmic nature of the relationship suggests that even a single campaign mailer made a big difference in the number of votes a candidate received, but there were diminishing returns as a candidate put out more and more mailers. But the relationship between mailers and vote shares is only correlational—it doesn’t imply causation.

That’s just one of many problems, I know. I fit a curve using only five data points; I made it after the fact so it can’t be tested; important variables are missing; I excluded half of the candidate pool… Still, it’s a really good fit. This is probably because the number of mailers issued is an accurate indicator of many factors important to winning the race. As Tim Myers has pointed out, these important factors tend to be correlated. There are those candidates with lots of money, lots of endorsements, and lots of mailers (we call them incumbents); and then there are those with very little of anything. So, at least for this election, it looks like square-inches of campaign mailers ended up being a very good indicator of how the candidates would perform.

What’s Next?

In real world match-ups of David versus Goliath, things don’t always end Biblically. But Gauny has already demonstrated that he can work effectively using his three-minute comments at City Council and reaching out to his neighbors, and the City Council would do well to heed his words considering that more than 6,000 Claritans voted to put Gauny behind the dais. If he runs in two years, he might well take over the seat that Bob Kellar has occupied for a decade, something that both parties would probably be pleased about.

Only in SCV: A Family Affair

It is not uncommon for members of the ruling class to be related. Monarchs marry their cousins, titles are bestowed on relatives, and sometimes a proclivity for the political life just runs in the family. In keeping with the long tradition of politics being a family affair, this month’s election is forcing two relatives to fight each other for a seat on City Council.

Candidates Frank Ferry and David Gauny are related. It’s a non-blood, only recently discovered, rather convoluted kind of related, but related they are. Seriously[1].

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After a family party, the link became apparent. David married Tracy, who happens to have a cousin who had a child[2] with a woman whose uncle is Frank Ferry (one can only imagine the meeting; it would be wonderful if it went something like "David and Tracy, I'd like you to meet Uncle Frank!"). Put another way, Frank Ferry is David Gauny’s wife’s cousin’s child’s great-uncle. Put yet another way, there exists a child who will likely invite the Gaunys and Great-Uncle Frank to their wedding some day, as that child is related to both parties.

For those who think best linearly:

*David Gauny married Tracy

*Tracy’s cousin had a child with a nice young woman

*That nice young woman’s uncle is Frank Ferry

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If Ferry and Gauny didn’t get along as well as they do, this could have made things really awkward. Happily, Ferry and Gauny share a mutual admiration that long outdates discovery of their family tie. The two even josh each other as relatives are wont to do. If you’ll recall, Ferry good-naturedly teased David with “You threw the first punch, and we’re coming after you now…you’re going to learn the hard way” to which David joked back “Ferry exemplifies everything that is wrong with our government.” And now, they’re cousins—of the kinda sorta variety.

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The union of the House of Ferry with the House of Gauny, however tenuous, has several important implications. In a tight election where every vote will count, the discovery means that Tracy Gauny has only one of three bubbles not yet inked in (assuming familial loyalty obliges her to vote for her husband and Frank Ferry). Hence, the remaining candidates must fight especially hard to win her third vote. With regard to social etiquette, I presume Frank, as family, will be obliged to attend David’s victory party even if he (Frank) loses. If both win, they can celebrate together. Finally, City Attorney Carl Newton will have to get to work crafting another of his famously rigorous legal opinions as to whether Ferry and Gauny could serve together without violating the City’s nepotism policy.

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In any case, David and Frank will have to start being nicer to one another. There's a young person out there that shares 6.25% of his/her genetic code with Tracy Gauny and 12.5% of it with Frank Ferry (I calculated the coefficients of relatedness[3]). That child might well tune into a City Council meeting, and it would be a shame if they had to watch a family quarrel.

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[1]Confirmed by sources that are undisputed experts on the Gauny family tree.

[2]And I shall refer to him/her exclusively as "the child," not only for its somewhat miraculous connotation, but in the interest of keeping said child's identity private.

[3]The coefficient of relatedness tells one the probability that two individuals will have the same copy of a gene because they both inherited it from a shared ancestor. It's 0.5 between mother and child, 0.25 between grandchild and grandparent, 0.25 between aunt and niece, etc.)